Lindy tagged me on the thorny (to me) issue of data mining. She poses the great question,
“Predictive analytics, in my mind, is like the holy grail of data mining—it becomes an obsession for those who pursue it, but does it really change anything?”
and,
“does it make sense for a membership organization to spend time and resources on predictive modeling, or is it just another layer separating us from our members?”
As she mentions, she and I were both at the same meeting on this subject. (I’ll be honest, I went because it was in my calendar as a “Technology Idea Swap”, so I had no recollection that it was on data mining until I got there and heard everyone introducing themselves and talking about how they wanted to learn about databases and SQL searches and stuff… and then I thought, “Dang.”) And of course, you know me, I was actually very interested in whether anyone was getting any useful data out of social networks, which was disappointingly completely off-topic and, sadly for me, a question left lonely and unanswered.
Anyway. Lindy and I were a bit squirmy through the whole discussion. It seemed like so many hopes and dreams were being placed at the altar of the goddess Clementine… but I had to ask myself, could you REALLY get any more analysis out of it then you could get simply by asking your members what events they attend, plan to attend, ever attended, or might attend in the future, and why? Since when did we stop talking to our members about this stuff? A good internal marketing manager could give you all the answers you seek about which of your various audiences are likely to respond to which of your messages, who’s going to engage with you, why and when, who’s going to participate in which of your events, etcetera, and they would know these answers not through stats and charts (even if you ask for them) but through experience and listening.
The other part of me thinks that the questions can be manipulated to get whatever result you want - both when surveying members and when using predictive modeling software. I don’t trust any of it as far as I can throw it (metaphorically speaking, I guess… heh). But I GET that some people need the charts, graphs and metrics to show them (or their higher-ups) that they are on the right path. I get that, and I have no problem with that. To each their own!
But there’s something about the reliance on supposedly hard data and analytics that says to me,
“we’re afraid of trusting our instincts”
“we’re afraid of failing”
“we’re afraid of being wrong”
But in order to have real Business Intelligence, and real iterative strategic thinking, then we need to simply be paying attention - continuously - and be able to be reactive and proactive to fluctuations in data, or results, or whatever metrics we want, and create a flexible and agile way of working. You can’t fail if you build “failure” into your processes and learn from each small adjustment. You can’t fail if you
beta test everything.

